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Mortgages Above 6% Now Exceed Share Below 3%📈
A milestone on the long lock-in recovery journey...
In Q3 2025, the share of U.S. homeowners with mortgage rates at or above 6% rose to 21.2%, surpassing the 20% share with rates below 3% for the first time.
The shift signals a gradual unwind of the pandemic-era “rate lock-in” dynamic that has limited home sales by discouraging owners from giving up ultra-low mortgages.
Mortgage rates have eased from recent highs, but remain above 6%.
Rates reached a 2025 peak of 7.04% in January and fell to the 6.2% range by the end of the year.
Zooming out, rates have remained above 6% since September 2022, keeping many would-be sellers "locked-in” and hindering total inventory recovery.
Housing supply has improved over the past year, tipping the national market into “balanced” territory, and some local markets all the way into “buyer’s market” territory.
Scarce inventory has kept upward pressure on home prices, especially in affordable areas where homes continue to sell at a quick clip and buyers face considerable competition.
New-construction inventory has helped fill the gap, and the new-home share of inventory has climbed beyond pre-pandemic levels.
In the third quarter of 2025, 20% of outstanding mortgages had an interest rate below 3%.
The Freddie Mac fixed rate on a 30-year loan dipped below 3% in July 2020, and generally stayed below the 3% threshold through September 2021.
Highlighting how extraordinary these conditions were, this was the only period in the data’s history (since 1971) where rates dropped below this threshold.
Between the second and third quarters, nearly all of the shifts in share occurred within the sub-4% brackets.
This may reflect “swappers,” or borrowers exchanging a lower-rate mortgage for a higher-rate one.
The shrinking share of low-rate mortgages could also reflect buyers paying off their mortgages and owning outright.
Nearly one-third of outstanding mortgages (31.5%) carry interest rates between 3% and 4%.
Meanwhile, 17.1% fall in the 4%–5% range, 10.2% are between 5% and 6%, and 21.2% have rates of 6% or higher.
Altogether, this means that more than half (51.5%) of outstanding mortgages still have a rate of 4% or lower, and roughly 69% have a rate of 5% or lower.
Notably, the share of mortgages with rates above 6% now exceeds the share with rates below 3%.
While roughly 80% of outstanding mortgages still carry rates below 6%, indicating that rate lock-in remains substantial, this shift marks a meaningful inflection point, suggesting increased market movement as more households either trade in low-rate mortgages for higher-rate loans or enter the market for the first time. ... See MoreSee Less
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ChatGPT Business Pages Are Here📣
ChatGPT is becoming a business discovery engine, and it already favors businesses with clean, structured, authoritative digital footprints.
Most professionals are invisible to it right now.
ChatGPT is not creating new listings like Google Business Profiles.
It’s aggregating trusted data sources (websites, directories, structured data, authority sites) and synthesizing them into AI answers.
That matters for lead generation and visibility.
How to show up on ChatGPT business pages (before your competition does)...
ChatGPT now pulls local business info into its AI results.
That means when a prospect asks for a referral for service provider, ChatGPT can display your business details without a traditional Google search first.
Most businesses aren’t optimized for this yet.
They’re missing out on a major new discovery channel, especially for referrals, because they aren’t showing up in these AI business panels.
If ChatGPT trusts your digital footprint, you appear.
If not, you don’t exist.
You need to optimize where AI is pulling your data from: that means your website, profiles, directory listings, etc.
AI chooses what to show and what content sources carry the most weight for ranking in ChatGPT’s knowledge panel.
Actionable tips:
•Claim/verify the business you're listing
•Supply consistent Name/Address/Phone
•Enrich your business descriptions
•Have a clear business identity (who you are, what you do, where you operate)
•Authoritative mentions (not spammy backlinks)
It’s early days, but this could become a huge referral funnel.
ChatGPT is already influencing referrals and discovery. ... See MoreSee Less
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First-time homebuyer💸 If you have an interest rate above 7% lets save you some cash:) ... See MoreSee Less
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The New Age of Home Buying🛸
According to a new report, digital channels are playing an increasingly central role in real estate agent selection for consumers, reshaping traditional referral and word-of-mouth pathways.
About 36% of sellers now find their agents through online sources, more than double the 15% reported in 2018, while 33% of buyers say online research significantly influenced their choice of agent.
This trend reflects a broader shift toward digital engagement and suggests that an agent’s online presence, visibility, and perceived expertise can be decisive even before first contact.
Borrowers are also finding their home financing through online sources.
However, further investigation finds that borrowers using big box lenders online pay statistically higher mortgage costs compared with similar borrowers at other lenders, resulting in significant lifetime cost “overcharges” on 30-year loans.
This report adds fuel to two lawsuits charging Zillow with deceptive practices by requiring or incentivizing “affiliated” real estate agents to steer their clients to the popular listing site’s mortgage lending affiliate, Zillow Home Loans.
The 40-page report says Zillow Home Loans “charges significantly higher mortgage costs than they would pay to other lenders.”
The rate is higher on all types of loans, conventional and government-backed, the study found.
Zillow has reportedly objected to the study, calling it flawed. The study “draws inaccurate and misleading conclusions,” it has said.
Based on HMDA data for loans originated between 2022 and 2024, and controlling for borrower demographics, loan characteristics and geographic and “temporal” factors, studies concluded that Zillow borrowers paid about a 10% higher annual percentage rate on a 30-year conventional loan than they did with other lenders.
The higher APR amounts to a net present value (NPV) “overcharge” of some $2,900 on an average $321,000 loan held to term.
For 2024 alone, the APR on such a loan originated by Zillow Home Loans was about 15 points for the year, amounting to an "overcharge" of about $4,600 on an average loan of approximately $337,000.
The analysis shows that Zillow’s mortgages have become more expensive over the course of the 2022-2024 study period relative to other lenders.
“While Zillow’s loans were relatively cheaper in 2022,” the study found, “they became relatively more expensive in 2023 and even more expensive in 2024.
Zillow originated 10,969 30-year conventional loans in 2022–2024. If each of these loans carries an overcharge of approximately $2,881, the total incremental cost to borrowers is approximately $31.6 million in present-value terms. ... See MoreSee Less
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2026 Mortgage Market Predictions🔮
Every year, consumers ask the same question:
“What’s going to happen this year?”
And every year, most of the answers miss the point.
This year’s predictions are about separating what actually matters from what simply makes noise, and helping consumers position themselves to win in 2026 regardless of market conditions.
1. Interest Rates in 2026: A Range, Not a Rescue
There is no magic rate rescue coming. What is likely:
• Rates drifting modestly lower over time
• Periods of volatility
• Short windows of opportunity, not long, sustained cycles
Think ranges, not numbers.
Predictions for the 30yr conventional fixed rates range perhaps as low as 5.6% to as high as 6.5%, but most agree to expect a very gradual improvement in rates, particularly the 2nd half of 2026. FHA, VA & USDA interest rates may stand to be even lower.
When rates dip, they likely won’t stay there long enough to save an undisciplined borrower.
Predictions say rates will dip and then rise on somewhat rapidly, giving windows of opportunities, but likely not months to take action.
2. Purchase Market Outlook: Quiet Improvement
The purchase market is expected to improve, modestly, not explosively. Key drivers:
• Slightly lower rates than recent years
• More inventory than we’ve seen since the pandemic
• Softening home prices in some markets, stabilizing in others
The big takeaway:
This will be a better year, not an easy one.
3. Real Estate Will Be Hyper-Local in 2026
National housing headlines are becoming less useful by the year. What matters more:
• Your state
• Your city
• Your specific neighborhoods
Examples:
• Some Sunbelt markets are normalizing after extreme growth
• Midwest markets are quietly outperforming expectations
• Coastal markets continue to swing more dramatically
Smart borrowers will:
• Ignore national panic headlines
• Pay attention to their local data numbers
• Consult with professionals who can help make sense of their market, not “the market”
4. Consumer Confidence is the Hidden Driver
Markets don’t move on rates alone. They move on:
• Consumer confidence
• Job stability
• Willingness to commit to large decisions
When consumers feel confident:
• They buy homes
• They make long-term commitments
• They stop waiting for “perfect conditions”
As confidence stabilizes, buying activity follows, even if rates don’t dramatically change.
5. Refinances Still Happening in 2026
Will there be a massive refinance boom like the past? No.
But refinances are far from gone.
Why?
• Consumer debt is at record levels
• Credit card rates are crushing household budgets
• Home equity remains historically high
The Bottom Line for 2026
2026 will not reward:
• Rate watchers
• “I’ll wait and see” thinking
It will reward:
• Structure
• Discipline
• Consistency
• Clear positioning, by having actual conversations with the right real estate professionals
Are you planning to make moves in real estate this year? ... See MoreSee Less
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Builders’ cheap mortgages are a bad deal for home buyers.
Bargain mortgages originated by builders are helping more people get onto the property ladder. The hidden cost is inflated home values and underwater loans.
Big home builders are offering the cheapest mortgages in the market.
Large builders can offer these eye-catching deals because they buy forward commitments from lenders; an agreement to buy mortgages in bulk at a below-market rate. They then allocate low-cost loans to individual home buyers.
This ability to buy down mortgage rates makes large builders more competitive than other sellers. A regular home seller can offer sweeteners to encourage buyers to sign, but only up to a certain amount.
Big builders can give more generous incentives to buyers because forward commitments aren’t counted as sellers’ concessions under the underwriting rules.
Builders have a glut of unsold inventory and are leaning heavily on mortgage deals to tempt buyers.
But the cheap loans are probably inflating property values. Between 2019 and 2024, prices for new homes bought from large builders, who as a group are more likely to use buydowns, increased 6% more than both existing homes and new homes purchased from smaller builders who rely less on buydowns to drive sales, based on an analysis by the AEI Housing Center.
Buyers overpay for their homes in return for a lower monthly mortgage payment.
The risk is that owners who paid an inflated price find themselves underwater soon after the sale closes. Newly built homes can be clustered in areas with plenty of new supply, which exacerbates the problem if values fall.
John Comiskey, founder of Reverse Engineering Finance, analyzed lenders with the largest percentage of underwater FHA mortgages that originated between 2022 and 2024. The top of the list is dominated by the lending arms of major builders.
Of the roughly 28,300 FHA loans that Lennar Mortgage originated over the two-year period that are tracked in Ginnie Mae’s MBS database, 27% are now underwater, according to Comiskey. He also figures that of the 55,000 FHA mortgages issued by D.R. Horton’s lending arm, 18% of borrowers owe more on their mortgage than their home is worth now.
For comparison, Quicken Loans, which does a similar volume of Federal Housing Administration mortgages as D.R. Horton’s mortgage arm but isn’t owned by a builder, has a lower 10% rate of underwater loans.
Builders resist cutting home prices outright because it is cheaper for them to buy down mortgage rates. Say a builder has a house on the market for $400,000 that isn’t selling. They can slash the price by 10% and take a $40,000 hit to their top line, or spend around half that amount to buy down the mortgage rate and help the borrower to qualify for a loan for the full $400,000 asking price.
Avoiding deep price cuts is also important to protect the value of all homes in a newly built community.
But underwater mortgages increase risk in the housing market. Loose lending standards in the years leading up to the 2008 housing crash left many owners in negative equity when prices fell, creating more incentive for them to hand back the keys.
At the same time, the financial resilience of a subset of borrowers has been weakening as people stretch to afford a home. Last year, nearly two-thirds of FHA borrowers had a monthly mortgage repayment that consumed over 43% of their pretax income according to the agency, which is considered risky.
A 4% mortgage rate sounds like a good deal in today’s environment. Outright price cuts would be healthier for buyers, and the housing market.
When dealing with builders, watch my video Are Builder Incentives Legit as an FYI...
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